Every post is an experiment.Start recording them.
The result is collected days later, corrected for the things you do not control, and folded into a model of your audience that never resets.
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the model
It remembers what worked
Every closed experiment narrows what the model believes about this audience. The grey shows nothing — no neural net is hiding in here; the arithmetic is deterministic TypeScript.
194 closed experiments · strongest effects, 95% credible intervals (labelled snapshot, 2026-08-28)
the loop
Four steps, three unsupervised
Publish. The post becomes an experiment with a feature vector. Metrics mature at 24h, 72h and 168h. The 168h close teaches. Nothing requires a browser.
194
the record
A ledger, not a vibe
Every post, its feature vector, and the reward after the confounds are removed. Rewards are residuals in standard deviations: mean 0, sd 1 by construction.
the memory
Beliefs change out loud
The next brief is drawn from the posterior, one draw per round, and the belief diff is written in plain language before anything is surfaced.
0 settled
the canon gate
Drafts that contradict the record are blocked
A draft that repeats a hook inside its cooldown, reuses a format the evidence ruled out, or overlaps something the creator already said is blocked with an explanation.
7 blocks on record
the mix
Your data, your prior
66% of what the model believes comes from this creator's own history; the rest from the niche prior. The split is shown, never hidden.
66% own data
the act step
What to make next
Briefs are proposals, drawn with exploration: a capped share deliberately test high-variance corners, because a belief that is wrong only gets found out by trying.
4 proposed
the follow-up
It interrupts only when it matters
A belief crossing 90% confidence, a trusted belief reversing, or an unusually large move — one proactive message per day at most, composed from the materiality verdict.
How the loop closes
Four steps, three of which happen while nobody is watching. The only human decision is whether to publish.
Read the technical write-upYou publish
The post is logged as an experiment with the creative choices it made: hook, length, thumbnail, slot, format, topic. Nothing else happens yet.
It waits
Results are collected at 24, 72 and 168 hours. Only the seven-day figure teaches; the earlier ones are shown but never learned from, because a post is not finished at day one.
It corrects for luck
The raw number is measured against what your channel was already expected to do given its size, the day, the hour and the gap since your last post. What survives is the part you control.
It tells you when it matters
Beliefs update. If something crossed the line from hunch to finding, or a settled belief just got falsified, you hear about it. Otherwise it stays quiet.
Everything you need to know
The honest version is on the page above and in the source.
The history is synthetic and generated with a known ground truth, so the learning path can be verified rather than asserted. A script replays it and checks that the model recovers the effects that were planted. It is not a real creator's channel, and it is labelled as synthetic everywhere it appears.