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Stop doing editing at 2x speed

Experiment #121 · closed · published 5/8/2026, 12:23:00 PM

What happened

Creative features

  • hookTypecontrarian
  • lengthBucket1_4m
  • thumbnailArchetypenone
  • publishSlotweekday_pm
  • formatvlog
  • topicCluster7

Confounds the baseline knew

  • Followers at publish20,591
  • Days since previous post1.8
  • Channel age at publish (days)168
  • Local publish time5/8/2026, 12:23:00 PM

The residual reward

Raw views mostly measure how big the channel already was. The baseline predicts what this channel “should” have earned given the confounds above; the residual is how the post actually landed relative to that prediction — measured in standard deviations.

Observed (168h)

100

Baseline expected

136

Residual reward

-0.51σ

raw -0.51σ · residual sd 0.599 log-views

Checkpoints

CheckpointViewsWatch time (min)CommentsLikesFollower delta
168h (close)1005,250050
24h552,888030
72h804,200040

What changed in the posterior

  • Post missed its baseline by 0.51σ. Moved: topic_cluster:topic_7 -0.028, thumbnail_archetype:none -0.017, format:vlog -0.014.

    • topic_70.1820.155 Δ-0.028±0.30
    • none0.1030.087 Δ-0.017±0.28
    • vlog-0.144-0.158 Δ-0.014±0.27
    • 1_4m-0.015-0.027 Δ-0.011±0.26
    • contrarian-0.018-0.029 Δ-0.011±0.28
    • weekday_pm-0.100-0.110 Δ-0.009±0.25
    • before_after0.0930.102 Δ+0.009±0.30
    • 20m_plus0.0800.087 Δ+0.007±0.28
    • topic_0-0.064-0.057 Δ+0.006±0.27
    • weekend_pm0.3810.387 Δ+0.006±0.29
    • commentary-0.163-0.157 Δ+0.006±0.28
    • topic_40.1680.174 Δ+0.005±0.27
    • shorts0.1810.186 Δ+0.005±0.28
    • topic_50.1170.122 Δ+0.005±0.30
    • topic_2-0.167-0.162 Δ+0.005±0.28
    • topic_1-0.030-0.026 Δ+0.004±0.27
    • text_dominant0.1070.110 Δ+0.003±0.26
    • demo_first-0.019-0.016 Δ+0.003±0.27
    • list0.0410.044 Δ+0.003±0.30
    • question0.0920.095 Δ+0.003±0.28
    • 10_20m0.0300.033 Δ+0.003±0.26
    • topic_30.2910.294 Δ+0.003±0.28
    • interview0.1030.100 Δ-0.003±0.27
    • claim-0.041-0.038 Δ+0.003±0.29
    • story_cold_open0.1690.167 Δ-0.002±0.27
    • face_reaction0.0430.045 Δ+0.002±0.26
    • number_list-0.175-0.173 Δ+0.002±0.27
    • topic_6-0.491-0.493 Δ-0.002±0.33
    • under_60s0.1360.134 Δ-0.002±0.28
    • 4_10m-0.223-0.222 Δ+0.001±0.28
    • weekday_am-0.123-0.123 Δ+0.001±0.27
    • tutorial-0.010-0.009 Δ+0.001±0.26
    • weekday_late-0.280-0.280 Δ+0.001±0.29
    • weekend_am0.1310.131 Δ+0.000±0.30
    • object_hero-0.338-0.338 Δ+0.000±0.28
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