Experiment #121 · closed · published 5/8/2026, 12:23:00 PM
Creative features
Confounds the baseline knew
Raw views mostly measure how big the channel already was. The baseline predicts what this channel “should” have earned given the confounds above; the residual is how the post actually landed relative to that prediction — measured in standard deviations.
Observed (168h)
100
Baseline expected
136
Residual reward
-0.51σ
raw -0.51σ · residual sd 0.599 log-views
| Checkpoint | Views | Watch time (min) | Comments | Likes | Follower delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 168h (close) | 100 | 5,250 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 24h | 55 | 2,888 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 72h | 80 | 4,200 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Post missed its baseline by 0.51σ. Moved: topic_cluster:topic_7 -0.028, thumbnail_archetype:none -0.017, format:vlog -0.014.