Experiment #147 · closed · published 6/14/2026, 1:13:00 PM
Creative features
Confounds the baseline knew
Raw views mostly measure how big the channel already was. The baseline predicts what this channel “should” have earned given the confounds above; the residual is how the post actually landed relative to that prediction — measured in standard deviations.
Observed (168h)
183
Baseline expected
159
Residual reward
+0.23σ
raw 0.23σ · residual sd 0.599 log-views
| Checkpoint | Views | Watch time (min) | Comments | Likes | Follower delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 168h (close) | 183 | 57,645 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 24h | 101 | 31,705 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 72h | 146 | 46,116 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Post beat its baseline by 0.23σ. Moved: topic_cluster:topic_5 -0.001, format:list -0.001, publish_slot:weekend_pm -0.001.