Experiment #167 · closed · published 7/13/2026, 5:49:00 PM
Creative features
Confounds the baseline knew
Raw views mostly measure how big the channel already was. The baseline predicts what this channel “should” have earned given the confounds above; the residual is how the post actually landed relative to that prediction — measured in standard deviations.
Observed (168h)
189
Baseline expected
183
Residual reward
+0.06σ
raw 0.06σ · residual sd 0.599 log-views
| Checkpoint | Views | Watch time (min) | Comments | Likes | Follower delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 168h (close) | 189 | 27,783 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 24h | 104 | 15,281 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 72h | 151 | 22,226 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Post beat its baseline by 0.06σ. Moved: topic_cluster:topic_7 +0.002, length_bucket:4_10m +0.001, format:vlog +0.001.