RATCHET
Skip to main content

Stop doing my audio chain

Experiment #167 · closed · published 7/13/2026, 5:49:00 PM

What happened

Creative features

  • hookTypecontrarian
  • lengthBucket4_10m
  • thumbnailArchetypeface_reaction
  • publishSlotweekday_pm
  • formatvlog
  • topicCluster7

Confounds the baseline knew

  • Followers at publish25,476
  • Days since previous post2.1
  • Channel age at publish (days)234
  • Local publish time7/13/2026, 5:49:00 PM

The residual reward

Raw views mostly measure how big the channel already was. The baseline predicts what this channel “should” have earned given the confounds above; the residual is how the post actually landed relative to that prediction — measured in standard deviations.

Observed (168h)

189

Baseline expected

183

Residual reward

+0.06σ

raw 0.06σ · residual sd 0.599 log-views

Checkpoints

CheckpointViewsWatch time (min)CommentsLikesFollower delta
168h (close)18927,783190
24h10415,281050
72h15122,226180

What changed in the posterior

  • Post beat its baseline by 0.06σ. Moved: topic_cluster:topic_7 +0.002, length_bucket:4_10m +0.001, format:vlog +0.001.

    • topic_70.1720.174 Δ+0.002±0.27
    • 4_10m-0.103-0.102 Δ+0.001±0.25
    • vlog-0.051-0.050 Δ+0.001±0.26
    • contrarian-0.037-0.036 Δ+0.001±0.26
    • face_reaction0.0600.061 Δ+0.001±0.25
    • weekday_pm-0.040-0.039 Δ+0.001±0.24
    • before_after0.0890.088 Δ-0.001±0.27
    • commentary-0.024-0.025 Δ-0.001±0.26
    • topic_40.1740.174 Δ-0.001±0.25
    • topic_0-0.029-0.030 Δ-0.001±0.25
    • topic_30.2570.257 Δ-0.001±0.25
    • demo_first-0.094-0.094 Δ-0.000±0.25
    • 1_4m0.0550.055 Δ-0.000±0.25
    • 20m_plus-0.098-0.099 Δ-0.000±0.27
    • none0.0670.067 Δ-0.000±0.26
    • claim-0.173-0.173 Δ-0.000±0.25
    • number_list-0.089-0.089 Δ-0.000±0.25
    • weekend_pm0.1550.154 Δ-0.000±0.26
    • topic_2-0.182-0.183 Δ-0.000±0.26
    • 10_20m0.0590.059 Δ-0.000±0.25
    • shorts-0.054-0.054 Δ-0.000±0.26
    • question0.1640.164 Δ+0.000±0.26
    • weekday_am-0.132-0.132 Δ-0.000±0.25
    • tutorial-0.013-0.013 Δ-0.000±0.24
    • list-0.023-0.023 Δ-0.000±0.27
    • interview0.1570.156 Δ-0.000±0.24
    • weekday_late-0.131-0.131 Δ-0.000±0.27
← Back to the experiment ledger