Experiment #175 · closed · published 7/23/2026, 8:13:00 AM
Creative features
Confounds the baseline knew
Raw views mostly measure how big the channel already was. The baseline predicts what this channel “should” have earned given the confounds above; the residual is how the post actually landed relative to that prediction — measured in standard deviations.
Observed (168h)
96
Baseline expected
134
Residual reward
-0.56σ
raw -0.56σ · residual sd 0.599 log-views
| Checkpoint | Views | Watch time (min) | Comments | Likes | Follower delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 168h (close) | 96 | 30,240 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 24h | 53 | 16,632 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 72h | 77 | 24,192 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Post missed its baseline by 0.56σ. Moved: topic_cluster:topic_6 -0.000, format:shorts -0.000.