Experiment #184 · closed · published 8/5/2026, 7:18:00 AM
Creative features
Confounds the baseline knew
Raw views mostly measure how big the channel already was. The baseline predicts what this channel “should” have earned given the confounds above; the residual is how the post actually landed relative to that prediction — measured in standard deviations.
Observed (168h)
143
Baseline expected
160
Residual reward
-0.18σ
raw -0.18σ · residual sd 0.599 log-views
| Checkpoint | Views | Watch time (min) | Comments | Likes | Follower delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 168h (close) | 143 | 7,507 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 24h | 79 | 4,129 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 72h | 114 | 6,006 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Post missed its baseline by 0.18σ. Moved: topic_cluster:topic_4 -0.000, format:vlog -0.000, hook_type:claim -0.000.