Experiment #196 · maturing · published 8/22/2026, 7:33:00 AM
Creative features
Confounds the baseline knew
Raw views mostly measure how big the channel already was. The baseline predicts what this channel “should” have earned given the confounds above; the residual is how the post actually landed relative to that prediction — measured in standard deviations.
Observed (168h)
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Baseline expected
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Residual reward
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Not matured yet — checkpoints currently at 168h.
| Checkpoint | Views | Watch time (min) | Comments | Likes | Follower delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 168h (close) | 386 | 202,650 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| 24h | 212 | 111,458 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| 72h | 309 | 162,120 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
Nothing recorded yet — the diff is written when the experiment closes.