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Against my thumbnail workflow

Experiment #196 · maturing · published 8/22/2026, 7:33:00 AM

What happened

Creative features

  • hookTypecontrarian
  • lengthBucket20m_plus
  • thumbnailArchetypeobject_hero
  • publishSlotweekend_am
  • formatinterview
  • topicCluster2

Confounds the baseline knew

  • Followers at publish28,931
  • Days since previous post0.4
  • Channel age at publish (days)274
  • Local publish time8/22/2026, 7:33:00 AM

The residual reward

Raw views mostly measure how big the channel already was. The baseline predicts what this channel “should” have earned given the confounds above; the residual is how the post actually landed relative to that prediction — measured in standard deviations.

Observed (168h)

Baseline expected

Residual reward

Not matured yet — checkpoints currently at 168h.

Checkpoints

CheckpointViewsWatch time (min)CommentsLikesFollower delta
168h (close)386202,6502191
24h212111,4581110
72h309162,1201151

What changed in the posterior

Nothing recorded yet — the diff is written when the experiment closes.

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