Experiment #198 · maturing · published 8/25/2026, 12:28:00 PM
Creative features
Confounds the baseline knew
Raw views mostly measure how big the channel already was. The baseline predicts what this channel “should” have earned given the confounds above; the residual is how the post actually landed relative to that prediction — measured in standard deviations.
Observed (168h)
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Baseline expected
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Residual reward
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Not matured yet — checkpoints currently at 168h.
| Checkpoint | Views | Watch time (min) | Comments | Likes | Follower delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 168h (close) | 205 | 10,763 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 24h | 113 | 5,919 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 72h | 164 | 8,610 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Nothing recorded yet — the diff is written when the experiment closes.